9 Comments
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Bob Bedford's avatar

Order a Portillos Italian beef sandwich, lie down in bed for a couple of hours and the urge to buy SBSW will soon pass.

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Mark Ashley's avatar

Good reminder about the operating leverage of high-cost miners to a rising price. In addition to valuing miners on cash flow multiple, ever considered them as NPV of P&P reserves?

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Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

Yes, in one of my previous articles, I valued SBSW at 10% of P&P, I think that's how I got in the $25 range.

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Mark Ashley's avatar

Why 10%?

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Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

Just being conservative, in aggressive bull markets, assets can trade closer to 20%

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Mark Ashley's avatar

Oh ok. In the gold mining space I've seen equities valued at NPV with a 10% discount rate. I was not aware that pre-rev junior miners typically trade at 10% to 20% of P&P value. Is that the case or have I misunderstood? And if so, how do you value the P&P...just apply the spot price or a reasonable forward price?

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Jordan's avatar

my largest holding. good points on the esg, something i also haven't considered.

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Rudy Randolph's avatar

2nd the ESG comment - I learn something every time I slow down and take the time to really read these - this and jared dillian's daily dirtnap are my favorite finance pubs

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Viggtor's avatar

Fantastic post!

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