23 Comments
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Thomas Moroder's avatar

NFE needs better financing, I just hope the CFO and Wes will not commit any further unforced errors and that PREPA/FEMA pays soon. NFE wants to be financed like a utility, but currently pays 12+% for debt 🤯

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turb0kat's avatar

they really got bent over by violating debt covenants

replaced their 6.5% notes with 12% notes...

"On November 6, 2024, the Company entered into an exchange and subscription agreement (the “Exchange and Subscription Agreement”) with certain holders (the “Supporting Holders”) of the Company’s outstanding 2026 Notes and 2029 Notes (each defined below). Pursuant to the Exchange and Subscription Agreement (i) NFE Financing LLC (“NFE Financing”), an indirect subsidiary of NFE, sold to the Supporting Holders approximately $1,210,396 aggregate principal amount of NFE Financing’s 12.0% Senior Secured Notes due 2029 (the “New 2029 Notes”) (the transactions described in clause (i), the “Subscription Transactions”) and (ii) NFE Financing issued to the Supporting Holders approximately $1,519,731 aggregate principal amount of New 2029 Notes in a dollar-for-dollar exchange for a portion of the Company’s 2026 Notes and 2029 Notes (the transactions described in clause (ii), the “Exchange Transactions” and together with the Subscription Transactions, the “Refinancing Transactions”).

"

that is costing them $150M/yr EXTRA interest

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Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

Oh yeah, it was a huge SNAFU. I'm shocked the CFO wasn't fired. Good help must be hard to find.

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Walker's avatar

Looks like everything depends on the likelihood and speed they can sell assets.

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Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

Yeah, asset sales are a part of the plan. They went too far on debt alone

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Walker's avatar

This fellow Edens seems like a can do kind of guy. With $500 million invested he is certainly well motivated?

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Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

Yes, incentives are aligned. He has a history of past successes. And he is buying right now

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turb0kat's avatar

according to grok & the internet his net worth is $3.5B making this about 10% of his wealth. recent $3M purchases are just virtue signaling IMO. He put in $50M into the refinancing so as not to get diluted.

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Hans's avatar

Why is the stock dropping > 10% with no news? Insiders? What do they know?

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Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

Insiders buying

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Hans's avatar

😂😂😂

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Walker's avatar

New Fortress Energy (NFE) left open many questions this week when the company warned it could run out of cash and go out of business unless it can soon unload assets and obtain additional refinancing, a Deutsche Bank analyst said in a new research note released Wednesday. MT Newswire 03/12/25

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Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

Yeah, I referenced the DB downgrade in the writeup I think? As well as cash on hand vs EBITDA

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Walker's avatar

Musta missed it. Thanks

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Walker's avatar

Do you own this stock?

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Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

Yes, about a 5% position

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Hans's avatar

@unemployedvaluedegen

Hi sir,

Can you take a look at NFE's secured notes? Unlike their stocks, these notes seem to offer a nice guaranteed return at current prices. Thanks in advance.

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Richiv's avatar

If there is really a chance of bankruptcy this year vs. a 3x 2025 return/5x 2026 return, it should be valued like a call option. Size accordingly...

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mike wilson's avatar

Looks more like it's headed for BK.

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Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

I'm not sure the debt maturity schedule agrees

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turb0kat's avatar

'29 bonds are trading at 70 cents. not a vote of confidence. maybe waiting to see what happens with PR contract bidding/extension? They are on a razors edge here especially if they lose cashflow in PR.

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mike wilson's avatar

Market thinks so. That's kind of all that matters when you want to make money in stocks. This has been an absolute POS

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Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

Oh, I agree the market hates it. But there’s a couple years before the market could be right.

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