12 years isn’t average, that’s the time until the very last parcel is sold on a very large subdivision. More medium sized subdivisions would only take 6 years until the last parcel is sold. Enough parcels are sold by 36 months to be at breakeven on average.
No, the average is between 4 and 6. It's only the largest residential subdivisions that from land acquisition to permitting to lot development to the sale of the final parcel that it could come close to 12 years. Most subdivisions are of a more moderate size
That makes much more sense. 4-6 years from acquisition to delivery of last vacant developed lost. Master planned communities up to 12 years. Got it. Thanks for clarifying!
Inflation comes in waves. During this relative low period of inflation, I think we can see a 5.5% 30 year mortgage, which will cause the next inflation wave
Because home prices have doubled since before Covid, so most homeowners only have a mortgage on about 40% of the house. That's excessive if you are still in your 40's. Middle aged people can take $50,000 to $100,000 out of their house with a home equity loan and do something else with it, build a pool, travel, buy a boat, etc.
If their average lot life is 12 years, then how do they earn back their cash equity (or stepped-up land basis contribution) after only 3 years?
12 years isn’t average, that’s the time until the very last parcel is sold on a very large subdivision. More medium sized subdivisions would only take 6 years until the last parcel is sold. Enough parcels are sold by 36 months to be at breakeven on average.
Ah, the average project life is 12 years. Thanks for explaining!
No, the average is between 4 and 6. It's only the largest residential subdivisions that from land acquisition to permitting to lot development to the sale of the final parcel that it could come close to 12 years. Most subdivisions are of a more moderate size
That makes much more sense. 4-6 years from acquisition to delivery of last vacant developed lost. Master planned communities up to 12 years. Got it. Thanks for clarifying!
Sounds similar to $MRP no?
I'll have to do a side by side
I'm still not following your logic on how interest rates will come down if inflation stays higher for longer. Hmm...
Inflation comes in waves. During this relative low period of inflation, I think we can see a 5.5% 30 year mortgage, which will cause the next inflation wave
Thank you for expounding on your thesis! How will a 5.5% rate on the 30 year mortgage trigger the next inflation wave?
Home equity loans driving a big consumption surge
60% of mortgages are under 4%. Why will 5.5% spur a flurry of HELOCs?
Because home prices have doubled since before Covid, so most homeowners only have a mortgage on about 40% of the house. That's excessive if you are still in your 40's. Middle aged people can take $50,000 to $100,000 out of their house with a home equity loan and do something else with it, build a pool, travel, buy a boat, etc.
Is the average homeowner with a pre-covid mortgage aged 40-50? I don't know otherwise, just asking.