I subscribed to you early on but admittedly am over subscribed and as prolific as you are, don't read these enough, but this was a great read!
I need to read more of your stuff as I would learn more about valuing companies. You've got a great style. The thesis makes a ton of sense, very logical. I'm a lowly retail investor so opinion doesn't count for much, really just wanted to pass on a compliment. Have a great weekend!
Hey there, I just wanted to say I enjoy your work and would love if you started a YouTube channel or some type of audio talking about your investments and their thesis!! Could gain you a larger following as well
ARS taking a bath here. Blew through resistance and fallen 15%. More to go? Set alert at $11.51 but 9.92 looks more likely as multiple touches down there
I think RFK is going to upset a few apple carts (not the phone kind). Over due IMHO but quality products that fix people are going to get a bid... eventually. Watching Oil here and it is screaming recession so if that plays out everything will get a dunking
I ve spent some time researching this. God I love the chart here.... On SeekingAlpha in comments people mention AQST that is a buccal film and a direct competitor with better product. This has to be taken into account too.
The management team competed against that film with noxolone and took 95% market share. Also, the film doesn't have FDA approval yet. The risk is real, but probably overstated
the only theory i've come across to explain geographic variance in the rate of significant allergies and asthma is that some countries keep their infants' environments too clean. this prevents the infant from being exposed to a wide variety of potential allergens during a time when their immune system is primed to accept what's normal in their world. i don't know enough about global child rearing habits in e.g. brazil, but the message is to let your kid play in the mud.
When the company says its a 1B TAM, wouldn't it be prudent to assume they will gain almost 50% market share (e.g. epipen can reduce prices to compete and if effectiveness is same, maybe doctors continue to prescibe epipen). That would put terminal value around 2-3B. Also expanding to other markets like Europe needs clearance from their respective drug administrations, which is not trivial (time and financial cost wise). All in, I am wondering if this is already priced in the stock now will lesser upside than we think
Narcan got to 95% market share by the same management team. I believe european approval has already happened, and the TAM relies on uptake in use rate, which has a good chance given needle aversion. But yeah, a high multiple would be needed for outsized gains.
I made a similar mistake in a company called Pavmed which wanted to replicate Exact science's playbook. They have the necessary approvals for their cancer diagnosis service, but uptick is slower than expected, despite a big TAM. Meanwhile, the dilution has caused the stock to decline significantly. I am down 95% on that position, sadly.
Yeah, I am out of my depth in Biotech. I totally agree. But there is incentive alignment from founders, $200 million cash, and a management team who did it before. 10x might be a stretch, probably shouldn't have put it in the 10 baggers or bust category, but I did because bust is a possibility. But this is much more likely to be a 3x than a zero.
I subscribed to you early on but admittedly am over subscribed and as prolific as you are, don't read these enough, but this was a great read!
I need to read more of your stuff as I would learn more about valuing companies. You've got a great style. The thesis makes a ton of sense, very logical. I'm a lowly retail investor so opinion doesn't count for much, really just wanted to pass on a compliment. Have a great weekend!
Thanks for the kind words. Yeah, the survey I put out said I write too often...but I gotta grow my channel.
Don’t stop writing man, it’s good stuff.
Hey there, I just wanted to say I enjoy your work and would love if you started a YouTube channel or some type of audio talking about your investments and their thesis!! Could gain you a larger following as well
Hey, thanks for the feedback. I'm considering something like that, gotta upgrade my internet connection! LOL
That would be awesome. I have a disability that makes it hard to read long form content, and that would help tremendously.
ARS taking a bath here. Blew through resistance and fallen 15%. More to go? Set alert at $11.51 but 9.92 looks more likely as multiple touches down there
Yeah, seems to be selling off with healthcare generally on RFK fears?
I think RFK is going to upset a few apple carts (not the phone kind). Over due IMHO but quality products that fix people are going to get a bid... eventually. Watching Oil here and it is screaming recession so if that plays out everything will get a dunking
I ve spent some time researching this. God I love the chart here.... On SeekingAlpha in comments people mention AQST that is a buccal film and a direct competitor with better product. This has to be taken into account too.
The management team competed against that film with noxolone and took 95% market share. Also, the film doesn't have FDA approval yet. The risk is real, but probably overstated
the only theory i've come across to explain geographic variance in the rate of significant allergies and asthma is that some countries keep their infants' environments too clean. this prevents the infant from being exposed to a wide variety of potential allergens during a time when their immune system is primed to accept what's normal in their world. i don't know enough about global child rearing habits in e.g. brazil, but the message is to let your kid play in the mud.
When the company says its a 1B TAM, wouldn't it be prudent to assume they will gain almost 50% market share (e.g. epipen can reduce prices to compete and if effectiveness is same, maybe doctors continue to prescibe epipen). That would put terminal value around 2-3B. Also expanding to other markets like Europe needs clearance from their respective drug administrations, which is not trivial (time and financial cost wise). All in, I am wondering if this is already priced in the stock now will lesser upside than we think
Narcan got to 95% market share by the same management team. I believe european approval has already happened, and the TAM relies on uptake in use rate, which has a good chance given needle aversion. But yeah, a high multiple would be needed for outsized gains.
I made a similar mistake in a company called Pavmed which wanted to replicate Exact science's playbook. They have the necessary approvals for their cancer diagnosis service, but uptick is slower than expected, despite a big TAM. Meanwhile, the dilution has caused the stock to decline significantly. I am down 95% on that position, sadly.
Yeah, I am out of my depth in Biotech. I totally agree. But there is incentive alignment from founders, $200 million cash, and a management team who did it before. 10x might be a stretch, probably shouldn't have put it in the 10 baggers or bust category, but I did because bust is a possibility. But this is much more likely to be a 3x than a zero.