16 Comments
User's avatar
Rudy Randolph's avatar

I subscribed to you early on but admittedly am over subscribed and as prolific as you are, don't read these enough, but this was a great read!

I need to read more of your stuff as I would learn more about valuing companies. You've got a great style. The thesis makes a ton of sense, very logical. I'm a lowly retail investor so opinion doesn't count for much, really just wanted to pass on a compliment. Have a great weekend!

Expand full comment
Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

Thanks for the kind words. Yeah, the survey I put out said I write too often...but I gotta grow my channel.

Expand full comment
Edward Lee's avatar

Don’t stop writing man, it’s good stuff.

Expand full comment
Kody Collins's avatar

Hey there, I just wanted to say I enjoy your work and would love if you started a YouTube channel or some type of audio talking about your investments and their thesis!! Could gain you a larger following as well

Expand full comment
Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

Hey, thanks for the feedback. I'm considering something like that, gotta upgrade my internet connection! LOL

Expand full comment
Kody Collins's avatar

That would be awesome. I have a disability that makes it hard to read long form content, and that would help tremendously.

Expand full comment
J Roche's avatar

ARS taking a bath here. Blew through resistance and fallen 15%. More to go? Set alert at $11.51 but 9.92 looks more likely as multiple touches down there

Expand full comment
Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

Yeah, seems to be selling off with healthcare generally on RFK fears?

Expand full comment
J Roche's avatar

I think RFK is going to upset a few apple carts (not the phone kind). Over due IMHO but quality products that fix people are going to get a bid... eventually. Watching Oil here and it is screaming recession so if that plays out everything will get a dunking

Expand full comment
Premski's avatar

I ve spent some time researching this. God I love the chart here.... On SeekingAlpha in comments people mention AQST that is a buccal film and a direct competitor with better product. This has to be taken into account too.

Expand full comment
Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

The management team competed against that film with noxolone and took 95% market share. Also, the film doesn't have FDA approval yet. The risk is real, but probably overstated

Expand full comment
jeff klugman's avatar

the only theory i've come across to explain geographic variance in the rate of significant allergies and asthma is that some countries keep their infants' environments too clean. this prevents the infant from being exposed to a wide variety of potential allergens during a time when their immune system is primed to accept what's normal in their world. i don't know enough about global child rearing habits in e.g. brazil, but the message is to let your kid play in the mud.

Expand full comment
Simple Value Investing's avatar

When the company says its a 1B TAM, wouldn't it be prudent to assume they will gain almost 50% market share (e.g. epipen can reduce prices to compete and if effectiveness is same, maybe doctors continue to prescibe epipen). That would put terminal value around 2-3B. Also expanding to other markets like Europe needs clearance from their respective drug administrations, which is not trivial (time and financial cost wise). All in, I am wondering if this is already priced in the stock now will lesser upside than we think

Expand full comment
Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

Narcan got to 95% market share by the same management team. I believe european approval has already happened, and the TAM relies on uptake in use rate, which has a good chance given needle aversion. But yeah, a high multiple would be needed for outsized gains.

Expand full comment
Simple Value Investing's avatar

I made a similar mistake in a company called Pavmed which wanted to replicate Exact science's playbook. They have the necessary approvals for their cancer diagnosis service, but uptick is slower than expected, despite a big TAM. Meanwhile, the dilution has caused the stock to decline significantly. I am down 95% on that position, sadly.

Expand full comment
Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

Yeah, I am out of my depth in Biotech. I totally agree. But there is incentive alignment from founders, $200 million cash, and a management team who did it before. 10x might be a stretch, probably shouldn't have put it in the 10 baggers or bust category, but I did because bust is a possibility. But this is much more likely to be a 3x than a zero.

Expand full comment