8 Comments
founding
Sep 3Liked by Unemployed Value Degen

i used to own some ec, but sold a couple of months ago after the columbian gov't seized 80% of all private retirement funds. any thoughts about political riks there?

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Political risk seems to be everywhere. Australia and coal, Ireland and windfall profits. Every Latin American country is always just one election from communism. Limiting position size seems the only way to operate, but with the decline of rule of law in the developed economies, I don't think staying in the rich countries solves the problem. I think third world governments have learned that they can't operate the assets themselves, so risk of nationalization of industries that support local economies is low. But for industries that are purely for export, like the Cobre Panama mine, governments can really go nuts.

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Sep 3Liked by Unemployed Value Degen

Thanks for this one. Did you look into total reserves? Seems to be a sticking point on FinTwit.

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Reserves have to be proven with capex, which they have been doing over the years. A lot of retail forget that reserves need proving. There's no evidence the area is depleting as it is mostly untapped, but also under explored

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Sep 30Liked by Unemployed Value Degen

From my understanding capex and current dividend is sustainable at $80 brent correct?... Ig divys will be cut in the short term. This I got from Sep. 24 investor update presentation.

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It's possible, they have cash if they want to pay the dividend. Cutting is a big decision that affects the share price, so management might pay an unsustainable dividend for 6 months waiting to see if prices improve.

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Sep 3Liked by Unemployed Value Degen

Thanks, I'm a holder, didn't sell yet. But after the drop I looked at the ownership structure and told myself never to buy a stock again where there's no individual or family with at least 10% ownership that can scold the CEO if he's underperforming and wasting the money of the company. I feel like companies like this can easily become ships adrift without a clear owner.

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I agree completely re presence of a strong capitalist. But sometimes its just a dry hole. Not sure if managenent needs scolding

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