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Nov 5Liked by Unemployed Value Degen

professor, what do you think of american homebuilders in your theme of k-shaped economy? i'm talking about affordable home builders like smith douglas homes, that looks like the equity is trading at 2-3x its normalized pre-tax income. i know you covered another douglas (elliman) on luxury side.

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Nov 5·edited Nov 5Author

I stumbled my way into really good luck with American homebuilders when I saw the price of lumber crash. I listened to an earnings call in January, and they all said their showrooms were full and demand was unlike anything they'd ever seen. I bought BZH and FOR, but now only BZH is below book value. And BZH has management problems. I've been thinking about LSEA for a while as well. I believe I have an early writeup on them on the substack. I think the theme is solid, but the early inflection gains have been had.

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Nov 5Liked by Unemployed Value Degen

another good ONE professor

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Thanks :D

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