Ten Bagger or Bust Sitrep: $VTNR, $TCS, Two Paywalled Companies

Who in this world is not mad? To some degree? - Voltaire

I suppose it’s time for me to get a bit more organized and put some of these writeups into categories.  For the businesses that fall into the category of being able to 10x, or go to zero, I call them “Ten Bagger or Bust” stocks.  So far there are four, and after Thursday there will be a fifth.

There have been a few developments:

Vertex Energy (VTNR) : $0.61 / share - $57 million market cap

The stock price just keeps getting whacked, but the crack spreads have maintained themselves well into the range where the traditional refining business should generate some nice gross profits. We will find out on the next earnings call how the process of mothballing the renewable diesel equipment is going, as well as how much working capital can be freed up from running down the renewable feedstock.  That will be at a loss of course, but that loss was made when the feedstock was purchased, and running it down now is the right move.  We still could hear any day whether or not a strategic JV partner was found.

The Container Store (TCS) - $0.55 / share - $27 million market cap

The stock price also just keeps getting whacked.  They are still at risk of being delisted if they don’t do a reverse split and get the share price over $1.  The biggest risk is the intention to go private or be acquired due to frustration with the stock price as announced on May 15th.  Still mind boggling to have a $850 million revenue company and cash flow positive trading at a market cap of $27 million. If they go private at a 20% premium to the current price, I will have lost money on the position.