Situation Update

It was a bit spur of the moment, but after we closed on selling our old house, we bought tickets to Bulgaria so the kids could visit their great grandmother.

My grandmother-in-law doesn’t have internet access (or air conditioning) so I am thumbing this on my phone at one of the few cafes in town which has wifi.

It will be two more days before I can sit in front of a computer and type out my thoughts regarding the Abacus Global Management Investor Day. Thank you again to management for inviting me.

Regarding, What I’m Buying This Week, the market is currently in a bit of an AI counter trend pullback. These tech pullbacks over the last twenty years have a median duration of 78 days and we are already a few weeks into it.

Consumer Discretionary and non mortgage Financials have held up well, but almost everything else has been taken out to the woodshed.

Within a couple of months, the bullish AI narrative will likely return, driven by some new drug discovery or earnings calls of companies that are using AI well, as opposed to the current news articles about companies who overspent.

I think it’s finally about time for electricity constraints to make a splash, and uranium stocks have been disproportionately wrecked this past month. In the near term, the only lever to pull is coal with a 43% utilization rate, so BW should stand to benefit. I had mentioned before that I had sold covered calls on my BW, and now they have expired worthless, so just this once I seem to have traded around the position well.

I find it interesting that all the Hormuz blockade stocks are back to where they started, ASIX & TROX.

All materials stocks are down, precious metals the most, but copper seems to have been taken down with gold. I could see myself adding to TGB for the first time in a while.

Oil services stocks have been decimated, despite the fact that AI is going to burn natural gas like never before. ACDC is very cheap, and I could even see starting to add to RIG soon.

The trucking supercycle is still going strong, so my number one add this week is ULH. I still need to do a thunderdome with ULH vs PAMT.

Beyond ULH, I still want to position myself for the peptide revolution, so I am trying to slowly build up a LFMD position. ALTG and ACDC are both compelling at these prices, but the technicals are hard here. I’m not sure what will give a V-shaped bounce and what needs a few months of consolidation.

I had previously written that my ABX position was full, but I am rethinking my self-imposed position size limits. I’m probably going to restart adding to ABX as well.

That’s about all I can manage with my thumbs on a phone at a cafe. I’ll probably be able to write something more substantial on Thursday.

Best regards,