11 Comments
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Tom Annese's avatar

Love these write-ups but wish you would hyperkink some of the claims made. Can’t tell if you caught it on Fox News, or if it comes from a more reputable source.

Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

Most of the claims in this one come from Craig Fuller of Freightwaves. And I tried to give the context that I've followed him for two years and he seems non-political

Ted Franco's avatar

Great in depth write-up. This is what sets you apart!

Oliver M's avatar

Steve, what's your "Nr. 1 oil service company right now"? Does Josh support your idea? Doomberg recently did an interesting interview on "In it to win it", making the case for a steady decline in oil prices. Don't know what to make of it. I guess predictions are difficult to make, especially if they concern the future...😊

Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

It's a commodity supercycle, and supply destruction will give way to demand destruction pricing. I don't know if that's 2026, or 2027, or 2028, but if you buy a commodity company with a good balance sheet to survive to the other side, you will do well eventually. While everyone else is counting CAGRs, commodity companies are multibaggers. A 5x beats the market even if it takes five years. I can't give away what's behind Josh's paywall. But if you've been listening to my weekend technical videos, it's my oil services buy recommendation as well, and I think I mentioned it about two weeks ago. I wrote about it in February. I think I might be doing a collaboration with Josh Young in a week or two on it, and I don't think the price will move before then.

Oliver M's avatar

Found it, thanks! Yes, a joint writeup would be great. Doombergs case is, that there's so much oil & gas around, that there won't be any supply destruction. Uncle Rick, on the other hand, shares your point of view. Really enjoy your Substack, btw! 👍😊

Sheepdog Capital's avatar

A true beneficiary of deportations! thanks for the write up Steve!

bujiboujee's avatar

Any thoughts about consolidation?

Unemployed Value Degen's avatar

It's in progress. HTLD axquired two competitors, and is two thirds done paying the debt down. Yellow went bankrupt and the assets were picked off. Could go further, but HTLD's CEO is unlikely to sell. He's a major shareholder and I think I remember at least one of his kids works there.