Sounds like LFMD could be one of the first places people go to get oral GLP-1s given the deals with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. I think many people would prefer tablets > injections and all at a lower price point. This could come as early as Jan 2026. Am I missing anything??
No I don't think you are missing anything. LFMD has suffered doing things the legitimate way while competitors used compounded drugs and got sued. But with the branded drugs falling in price, LFMD is really well positioned.
Reflecting on your analysis, for which I am grateful.
It is interesting how you approached LFMD as a "value investor" who was "pretty far outside of my comfort zone" writing up LifeMD. And now today you are writing about a microcap with absolutely no built-in value - a pure growth business trading for 50x sales with operational losses as far as the eye can see (no offense - it is a perfectly legitimate strategy - but STYLEWISE a million miles away from 'value').
Humbly - there is real value in LifeMD, starting with a material growing business and operational profits, trading at a valuation of <10x EBITDA:
Key LFMD EBITDA Financials:
Adjusted EBITDA (Q1 2025): $8.7 million, a substantial increase from $0.1 million in the year-ago period.
Adjusted EBITDA (Q4 2024): $9.0 million, up 78% year-over-year.
Adjusted EBITDA (Q3 2024): $3.7 million, a 33% increase year-over-year.
Full-Year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: Revised upward to a range of $31 million to $33 million.
A value investor could argue that (1) EBITDA is fake (2) growth is behind them (3) competition will destroy them (4) they keep diluting. So it may not be a classic 'value' play - but it is a real business which can be reasonably valued based upon growth assumptions, not unlike many others that value investors would buy.
Cheers!
-tk (purchased my 1st shares of LFMD today after spending the weekend researching)
Sounds like LFMD could be one of the first places people go to get oral GLP-1s given the deals with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. I think many people would prefer tablets > injections and all at a lower price point. This could come as early as Jan 2026. Am I missing anything??
No I don't think you are missing anything. LFMD has suffered doing things the legitimate way while competitors used compounded drugs and got sued. But with the branded drugs falling in price, LFMD is really well positioned.
Reflecting on your analysis, for which I am grateful.
It is interesting how you approached LFMD as a "value investor" who was "pretty far outside of my comfort zone" writing up LifeMD. And now today you are writing about a microcap with absolutely no built-in value - a pure growth business trading for 50x sales with operational losses as far as the eye can see (no offense - it is a perfectly legitimate strategy - but STYLEWISE a million miles away from 'value').
Humbly - there is real value in LifeMD, starting with a material growing business and operational profits, trading at a valuation of <10x EBITDA:
Key LFMD EBITDA Financials:
Adjusted EBITDA (Q1 2025): $8.7 million, a substantial increase from $0.1 million in the year-ago period.
Adjusted EBITDA (Q4 2024): $9.0 million, up 78% year-over-year.
Adjusted EBITDA (Q3 2024): $3.7 million, a 33% increase year-over-year.
Full-Year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: Revised upward to a range of $31 million to $33 million.
A value investor could argue that (1) EBITDA is fake (2) growth is behind them (3) competition will destroy them (4) they keep diluting. So it may not be a classic 'value' play - but it is a real business which can be reasonably valued based upon growth assumptions, not unlike many others that value investors would buy.
Cheers!
-tk (purchased my 1st shares of LFMD today after spending the weekend researching)
I like LFMD, and I wrote for the microcap that it was also outside of my comfort zone. I did not buy Medifast.